Category: New Publications

Our new paper, “Evaluation of 30 urban land surface models in the Urban-PLUMBER project: Phase 1 results“, is published in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (IF: 8.9).

This paper is one of the outcomes of the second international urban land surface model intercomparison project. The paper and its supporting information can be downloaded at https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.4589.

Authors: Lipson, M. J., Grimmond, S., Best, M., Abramowitz, G., Coutts, A., Tapper, N., Baik, J.-J., Beyers, M., Blunn, L., Boussetta, S., Bou-Zeid, E., De Kauwe, M. G., de Munck, C., Demuzere, M., Fatichi, S., Fortuniak, K., Han, B.-S., Hendry, M., Kikegawa, Y., Kondo, H., Lee, D.-I., Lee, S.-H., Lemonsu, A., Machado, T., Manoli, G., Martilli, A., Masson, V., McNorton, J., Meili, N., Meyer, D., Nice, K. A., Oleson, K. W., Park, S.-B., Roth, M., Schoetter, R., Simón-Moral, A., Steeneveld, G.-J., Sun, T., Takane, Y., Thatcher, M., Tsiringakis, A., Varentsov, M., Wang, C., Wang, Z.-H., & Pitman, A.

Abstract: Accurately predicting weather and climate in cities is critical for safeguarding human health and strengthening urban resilience. Multimodel evaluations can lead to model improvements; however, there have been no major intercomparisons of urban-focussed land surface models in over a decade. Here, in Phase 1 of the Urban-PLUMBER project, we evaluate the ability of 30 land surface models to simulate surface energy fluxes critical to atmospheric meteorological and air quality simulations. We establish minimum and upper performance expectations for participating models using simple information-limited models as benchmarks. Compared with the last major model intercomparison at the same site, we find broad improvement in the current cohort’s predictions of short-wave radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, but little or no improvement in long-wave radiation and momentum fluxes. Models with a simple urban representation (e.g., ‘slab’ schemes) generally perform well, particularly when combined with sophisticated hydrological/vegetation models. Some mid-complexity models (e.g., ‘canyon’ schemes) also perform well, indicating efforts to integrate vegetation and hydrology processes have paid dividends. The most complex models that resolve three-dimensional interactions between buildings in general did not perform as well as other categories. However, these models also tended to have the simplest representations of hydrology and vegetation. Models without any urban representation (i.e., vegetation-only land surface models) performed poorly for latent heat fluxes, and reasonably for other energy fluxes at this suburban site. Our analysis identified widespread human errors in initial submissions that substantially affected model performances. Although significant efforts are applied to correct these errors, we conclude that human factors are likely to influence results in this (or any) model intercomparison, particularly where participating scientists have varying experience and first languages. These initial results are for one suburban site, and future phases of Urban-PLUMBER will evaluate models across 20 sites in different urban and regional climate zones.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4589

Our new paper, “Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use“, is published in Nature Communications (IF: 16.6).

The paper and its supplement can be downloaded at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41458-5.

Authors: Chenghao Wang, Jiyun Song, Dachuan Shi, Janet L. Reyna, Henry Horsey, Sarah Feron, Yuyu Zhou, Zutao Ouyang, Ying Li, and Robert B. Jackson

Abstract: Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41458-5

Our new paper, “Compound climate-pollution extremes in Santiago de Chile“, is published in Scientific Reports (IF: 4.996).

The paper and its supplement can be downloaded at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-33890-w.

Authors: Sarah Feron, Raúl R. Cordero, Alessandro Damiani, Pedro Oyola, Tabish Ansari, Juan C. Pedemonte, Chenghao Wang, Zutao Ouyang, and Valentina Gallo

Abstract: Cities in the global south face dire climate impacts. It is in socioeconomically marginalized urban communities of the global south that the effects of climate change are felt most deeply. Santiago de Chile, a major mid-latitude Andean city of 7.7 million inhabitants, is already undergoing the so-called “climate penalty” as rising temperatures worsen the effects of endemic ground-level ozone pollution. As many cities in the global south, Santiago is highly segregated along socioeconomic lines, which offers an opportunity for studying the effects of concurrent heatwaves and ozone episodes on distinct zones of affluence and deprivation. Here, we combine existing datasets of social indicators and climate-sensitive health risks with weather and air quality observations to study the response to compound heat-ozone extremes of different socioeconomic strata. Attributable to spatial variations in the ground-level ozone burden (heavier for wealthy communities), we found that the mortality response to extreme heat (and the associated further ozone pollution) is stronger in affluent dwellers, regardless of comorbidities and lack of access to health care affecting disadvantaged population. These unexpected findings underline the need of a site-specific hazard assessment and a community-based risk management.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33890-w

Our new paper, “Finding causal gateways of precipitation over the contiguous United States“, is published in Geophysical Research Letters (IF: 5.576). This paper is from the collaboration with the Urban Environment Research Group at Arizona State University (ASU).

The paper and its supplement can be downloaded at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101942.

Authors: Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, Chenghao Wang, and Ying-Cheng Lai

Abstract: Identifying regions that mediate regional propagation of atmospheric perturbations is important to assessing the susceptibility and resilience of complex hydroclimate systems. Detecting the regional gateways through causal inference, can help unravel the interplay of physical processes and inform projections of future changes. In this study, we characterize the causal interactions among nine climate regions in the contiguous United States using long-term (1901–2018) precipitation data. The constructed causal networks reveal the cross-regional propagation of precipitation perturbations. Results show that the Ohio Valley region acts as an atmospheric gateway for precipitation and moisture transport in the U.S., which is largely regulated by the regional convective uplift. The findings have implications for improving predicative capacity of hydroclimate modeling of regional precipitation.

Plain Language Summary: Successful detection of causality in complex systems is important to unraveling the underlying mechanisms of system dynamics. The dynamic interactions in Earth’s climate system are often nonlinear, weakly or moderately coupled, and essentially non-separable, which renders conventional approaches of causal inference, such as statistical correlation or Granger causality, infeasible or ineffective. Here we applied the convergent cross mapping method to detect causal influence among different climate regions in the contiguous U.S. in response to precipitation perturbations. The results of our study show that the Ohio Valley region, as an atmospheric convergence zone, acts as a regional gateway and mediator for the long-term precipitation perturbations in the U.S. The temporal evolution of causal effect and susceptibility exhibits superposition of climate variability at various time scales, highlighting the impact of prominent climate variabilities such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of causality.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101942

Our new paper, “Spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau“, is published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (IF: 6.617).

The paper and its supplement can be downloaded at https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/6413/2022/.

Authors: Ying Li, Chenghao Wang, Ru Huang, Denghua Yan, Hui Peng, and Shangbin Xiao

Abstract: Evaporation from global oceans is an important moisture source for glaciers and headwaters of major Asian rivers in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Although the accelerated global hydrological cycle, the altered sea–land thermal contrast and the amplified warming rate over the TP during the past several decades are known to have profound effects on the regional water balance, the spatial distribution of oceanic moisture contributions to the vast TP remains unclear. This hinders the accurate quantification of regional water budgets and the reasonable interpretation of water isotope records from observations and paleo archives. Based on historical data and moisture tracking, this study systematically quantifies the absolute and relative contributions of oceanic moisture to long-term precipitation in the TP. Results show that the seasonal absolute and relative oceanic contributions are generally out of phase, revealing the previously underestimated oceanic moisture contributions brought by the westerlies in winter and the overestimated moisture contributions from the Indian Ocean in summer. Quantitatively, the relative contribution of moisture from the Indian Ocean is only ∼30 % in the south TP and further decreases to below 10 % in the northernmost TP. The absolute oceanic contribution exhibits a spatial pattern consistent with the dipole pattern of long-term precipitation trends across the Brahmaputra Canyon region and the central-northern TP. In comparison, relative oceanic contributions show strong seasonal patterns associated with the seasonality of precipitation isotopes across the TP.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6413-2022

Our new paper, “Vegetation dynamics influenced by climate change and human activities in the Hanjiang River Basin, central China“, is published in Ecological Indicators (IF: 6.263).

The Share Link to download a copy of our paper is https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S1470-160X(22)01059-7 (valid until Dec 11, 2022).

Authors: Shaokang Yang, Ji Liu, Chenghao Wang, Te Zhang, Xiaohua Dong, and Yanli Liu

Abstract: Assessing the dynamics of vegetation and its response to environmental changes is essential to understanding ecosystem changes and the sustainable use of natural resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation growth in the Hanjiang River Basin. We classified the basin into the portion mainly affected by climate change (V_Climate) and the portion affected by both climate change and anthropogenic activities (V_{Climate+Human}). Using an improved residual trend method that considers both lag effect and nonlinear response, we analyzed the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to observed NDVI changes. Results suggest that the basin experienced a statistically significant increase in growing-season NDVI during 2001–2016 (0.047 decade^-1). Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor for NDVI change in V_{Climate+Human}, whereas precipitation and temperature were nearly equally important for NDVI change in V_Climate. On average, both climate change and human activities promoted vegetation growth during the study period, and their average contributions were 41.4 % and 15.5 %, respectively. In particular, climate change and human activities in general enhanced vegetation growth in non-urban areas, while human activities mainly reduced vegetation growth in urban areas. The findings of this study can benefit regional ecological restoration and environmental management projects.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109586

Our new paper, “Realistic representation of city street-level human thermal stress via a new urban climate-human coupling system“, is published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (IF: 16.799). This paper is from the collaboration with the Healthy Cities Laboratory at The University of Hong Kong.

The Share Link to download a copy of our paper is https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1flIY4s9Hw6370 (valid until Nov 03, 2022).

Authors: Xinjie Huang, Jiyun Song, Chenghao Wang, and Pak Wai Chan

Abstract: Urban overheating aggravated by climate change and rapid urbanization poses a severe threat to thermal health of urban residents. To more realistically represent street-level heat stress, we propose a new urban climate-human coupling system by integrating an advanced urban canopy model (UCM) with a new human-environment adaptive thermal stress (HEATS) module. The coupled UCM-HEATS system features a state-of-the-art solution to complicated human-street radiative exchanges and incorporates dynamic human thermoregulatory responses to microclimatic changes. The UCM-HEATS system was evaluated in a typical hot and humid city, Hong Kong, and then applied to investigate street-level thermal stress in various urban settings and under different personal conditions. By explicitly resolving shading effects of buildings and trees on human radiation budgets, our study emphasizes the marked effectiveness of active shade management using green and gray infrastructure on daytime heat mitigation, proposing a “right shade, right place, right time” paradigm for regulating important street canyon geometries (building height, road width, and tree crown width) and orientations. Additionally, human evaporative heat dissipation can be hindered by urban moisture islands and wind impediments; thus, a detailed urban ventilation strategy is suggested considering different temperature-humidity combinations. For personal heat protection, we identified an evident cooling effect of high-albedo clothing and a thermal-comfort-optimal walking speed. Special attention is paid to heat-vulnerable groups, especially older people who suffer from notably higher heat risks during pandemics with facemask-induced heat burden. Bridging urban climate and human ergonomics, this study aims to advance human-centric urban design toward future smart, resilient, and inclusive cities.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112919

Our new paper, “Detecting the causal influence of thermal environments among climate regions in the United States“, is published in Journal of Environmental Management (IF: 8.910). This paper is from the collaboration with the Urban Environment Research Group at Arizona State University (ASU). The first author, Xueli Yang, is a Ph.D. candidate at ASU. Congratulations to Xueli!

The Share Link to download a copy of our paper is https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1fepj14Z6tlDl~ (valid until Oct 15, 2022).

Authors: Xueli Yang, Zhi-Hua Wang, Chenghao Wang, and Ying-Cheng Lai

Abstract: The quantification of cross-regional interactions for the atmospheric transport processes is of crucial importance to improve the predictive capacity of climatic and environmental system modeling. The dynamic interactions in these complex systems are often nonlinear and non-separable, making conventional approaches of causal inference, such as statistical correlation or Granger causality, infeasible or ineffective. In this study, we applied an advanced approach, based on the convergent cross mapping algorithm, to detect and quantify the causal influence among different climate regions in the contiguous U.S. in response to temperature perturbations using the long-term (1901–2018) climatology of near surface air temperature record. Our results show that the directed causal network constructed by convergent cross mapping algorithm, enables us to distinguish the causal links from spurious ones rendered by statistical correlation. We also find that the Ohio Valley region, as an atmospheric convergent zone, acts as the regional gateway and mediator to the long-term thermal environments in the U.S. In addition, the temporal evolution of dynamic causality of temperature exhibits superposition of periodicities at various time scales, highlighting the impact of prominent low frequency climate variabilities such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proposed method in this work will help to promote novel system-based and data-driven framework in studying the integrated environmental system dynamics.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116001