On July 29, 2021, Southeastern Conference Presidents voted unanimously to extend invitations to Oklahoma and Texas to join the conference. The following day, both OU and Texas accepted those invitations and the rumors that had been swirling around for the past week had been put to bed. Oklahoma and Texas are officially on their way out of the Big 12 and headed to the SEC.

So now the only question that remains is when exactly will they jump ship? It’s not as simple as one might think. There are a lot of different variables at play that could have great impacts on this decision.

No factor is bigger than the money factor. OU and Texas are currently under contract with the Big 12 to remain in the conference through 2025. If they were to leave before that time, both schools would have to pay a buyout that would cost around $80 million each. Now, there have been talks that Texas could potentially pay out OU’s buyout with their money from the Longhorn Network. Although I think that could be an unlikely scenario.

The next thing that both schools have to consider is they are both breaking in new head coaches, Texas having a second year head coach and OU having a first year head coach. Steve Sarkisian, head coach at Texas, clearly isn’t ready to go to the SEC after going 5-7, which included a loss to Kansas, in his first year as a head coach. Brent Venables, the new OU head coach, has never been a head coach before. So he is unproven. He has been a great defensive coordinator in his past but never a head coach.

The final hiccup to consider for both schools is the lack of expansion in the College Football Playoff for the foreseeable future. Right now this applies to OU more than it does Texas, but both schools could potentially be top ten teams next year and fighting for Playoff spots. Heading for the SEC as soon as possible would just make it more difficult to be in one of those four spots.

So, all things considered, when are they going to leave? If you ask writers and people who follow both teams, you would find that many believe this year to be the last year for each school in the Big 12. Which I can see that happening. However, if I were making the decision, I would stay in the Big 12 through the end of the contract and milk it for as long as I can.

From a Texas perspective, they have way too many issues on that team to come close to competing in the SEC right now. The Big 12 is a weak football conference, and Texas could only manage to muster up three wins against Big 12 schools. If they jump to the SEC as soon as they can they will get steamrolled and embarrassed more than they already have been recently. They need to use this additional time in the Big 12 to grow and build something before moving to the hardest conference in all of college football.

For OU, things aren’t nearly as bleak as they are in Austin, Texas. However, I still believe that OU should stay in the Big 12 for similar reasons that I believe Texas should stay. OU is bringing in Brent Venables for his first ever head coaching job. While I believe this is a great hire, he is an unproven head coach so no one really knows what he will bring to the table. Unlike Sarkisian at Texas, Venables isn’t tasked with completely rebuilding the OU football program. Venables is here to make the program stronger and ready for the SEC. Something his predecessor likely couldn’t accomplish.

Unlike Texas, OU hasn’t fallen out of being a top ten football team in the nation. Staying in the Big 12 will allow Venables and his new staff the chance to create a new culture at OU and will allow them to continue to stay on top and ooze with confidence heading into the SEC. Plus, with the four team playoff format staying in place, OU is much more likely to make the playoff in the Big 12 than they are in the SEC.

I believe fans from both schools are ready to leave the Big 12 and start fresh in the SEC. I’ll be honest and say that I’m one of those fans. I am ready to get out of the Big 12. With that being said I do believe that there is considerable merit to staying as long as both schools can. Ultimately I hope that is what happens as well. Either way though, the move to the SEC will benefit both schools whenever they do decide to move. That in it of itself should have fans from both schools equally excited.